Doubting is as human as any other rational exercise we could think of. Experience tells us that sometimes, a healthy dose of doubt or skepticism does make a world of difference. You are a bit concerned about the quality or perhaps the safety of a sandwich and you choose not to eat it. Then you learned another person decided otherwise who ended up with a really bad stomach. It could have been the look, the smell, or maybe it was just plain weird hunch, whatever it was, it drove you to a course of action that actually ended up keeping you safe.
Doubt was also what drove Talisay Vice Mayor Charlie Natanauan to appeal to President Duterte to allow his constituents to return to their homes and to recommend that PhiVolcs change their opinion about the dangers of Taal Volcano.
According to the good Vice Mayor, Philvocs made the situation worst, that Undersecretary and Phivolcs Officer in Charge, Renato Solidum Jr. was alone in his opinion and that Usec. Solidum should study the volcano some more.
Of course, Mr. Natanauan’s statement created a buzz and drove a couple or two or a million individuals to laugh at him and his dangerous statement.
But extending the benefit of the doubt to Mr. Natanauan, one may see that he was coming from a place of desperation and probably, genuine concern for his constituents. He was also looking at the situation through the eyes of his father, who told him stories of previous eruptions, someone who like the Vice Mayor, also did not study volcanology and could only see what is visible on the surface.
And there lies the difference. Phivolcs and the committed men and women that comprise this clearly underfunded institution, have spent years in school, in the field, in the lab, in symposia and fora all over the world, accumulating knowledge and information so they may be able to make sense of what we see on the surface and what goes on below.
Because they are the authorities when it comes to volcanoes and earthquake, they have a responsibility to do their researches and studies well because if they don’t, people will die. It is an incredible burden to bear but they have instruments and tools at their disposal.
Questioning the science behind Phivolcs alerts and recommendation, in order to understand the situation better is one thing. Questioning them because what they say runs contrary to what you see and feel is another. The latter is quite dangerous because your analysis and interpretation is framed by, well, a hunch. In almost all situations science always trumps hunch.
Here is a question to Mr. Natanauan, if your constituents, those who heard your statements, agreed with you and decided to ignore the warnings and recommendations from Philvocs and returns to their homes and suddenly the volcano erupts putting them in harms way, would you be able to live with the fact that you drove people to their doom over your unfounded personal hunch.
